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Les travaux académiques et rapports d’institutions qui analysent les données et discutent de sujets liés à la collapsologie.
GOPNAS study shows how time preferences influence long-term collective action under risk of collapse. Caring for the future can transform tragedy into comedy of the commons where cooperation dominates https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/19/1916545117
[Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis] "Our model shows that a catastrophic collapse in human population, due to resource consumption, is the most likely scenario of the dynamical evolution based on current parameters" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6
"We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y." https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/28/1910114117
Research initiatives on the risks of human extinction and societal collapse are popping up around the world. The "Commission for the Human Future" formed last year following discussions at the Australian National University http://www.humansforsurvival.org/ ⬇️
"A small but growing number of people are calling on society to recognise just how desperate the situation is. If that recognition became widespread, then something unprecedented might be done to change the destructive course" @RupertRead https://www.ecologicalcitizen.net/article.php?t=this-civilization-finished-time-build-ecological-civilization
Bithas, Kostas; Kalimeris, Panos Unmasking decoupling: Redefining the Resource Intensity of the Economy Article de journal Science of The Total Environment, 619–620 , p. 338–351, 2018, ISSN: 0048-9697. @article{bithas_unmasking_2018, title = {Unmasking decoupling: Redefining the Resource Intensity of the Economy}, author = {Kostas Bithas and Panos Kalimeris}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969717331194}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.061}, issn = {0048-9697}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-04-01}, urldate = {2017-12-27}, journal = {Science of The Total Environment}, volume = {619–620}, pages = {338--351}, abstract = {Interest in investigating the complex link between resources and developments has revived recently following studies which support striking “dematerialized” growth over the last hundred years or so. This so-called decoupling effect is defined as the declining quantity of resources required for producing one unit of GDP. Decoupling studies adopt aggregate GDP as the measure of the outcome of the economy. However, this outcome is contributed by the total population which differs over time and between countries. A valid comparison should use a comparable, standardized indicator that adjusts for population size. GDP per capita, the income index, defines in monetary terms the ultimate outcome of the economy and is adopted by international organizations as the standard index for comparing economies. The income index approximates, in monetary terms, the welfare produced by the economic system and enjoyed by individuals. Recently developed alternative indexes of welfare lack broad data coverage and have limited empirical application as yet. For this reason and for ensuring direct comparison with the standard decoupling estimates, our study remains within the monetary context. The present paper re-evaluates the resources-economy link from the perspective of “the resources required for the production of one unit of GDP per capita (Income)” and hence evaluates the efficiency of turning resources into the actual outcome of the economic system. Our estimates suggest that the dependence of global economic growth on natural resources has increased by over 60% in the last 110 years (1900–2009), contrasting with the prevailing decoupling estimates which suggest a reduction by 63%. We find that the actual decoupling, which began in the mid-1970s in post-industrial economies, is counterbalanced by the intensified resource intensity of several developing economies. Accordingly, in the pursuit of sustainability, the dematerialization target needs to be more clearly incorporated into environmental policies and pervade contemporary economic thinking.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Interest in investigating the complex link between resources and developments has revived recently following studies which support striking “dematerialized” growth over the last hundred years or so. This so-called decoupling effect is defined as the declining quantity of resources required for producing one unit of GDP. Decoupling studies adopt aggregate GDP as the measure of the outcome of the economy. However, this outcome is contributed by the total population which differs over time and between countries. A valid comparison should use a comparable, standardized indicator that adjusts for population size. GDP per capita, the income index, defines in monetary terms the ultimate outcome of the economy and is adopted by international organizations as the standard index for comparing economies. The income index approximates, in monetary terms, the welfare produced by the economic system and enjoyed by individuals. Recently developed alternative indexes of welfare lack broad data coverage and have limited empirical application as yet. For this reason and for ensuring direct comparison with the standard decoupling estimates, our study remains within the monetary context. The present paper re-evaluates the resources-economy link from the perspective of “the resources required for the production of one unit of GDP per capita (Income)” and hence evaluates the efficiency of turning resources into the actual outcome of the economic system. Our estimates suggest that the dependence of global economic growth on natural resources has increased by over 60% in the last 110 years (1900–2009), contrasting with the prevailing decoupling estimates which suggest a reduction by 63%. We find that the actual decoupling, which began in the mid-1970s in post-industrial economies, is counterbalanced by the intensified resource intensity of several developing economies. Accordingly, in the pursuit of sustainability, the dematerialization target needs to be more clearly incorporated into environmental policies and pervade contemporary economic thinking. |
Jarvis, Andrew Energy Returns and The Long-run Growth of Global Industrial Society Article de journal Ecological Economics, 146 , p. 722–729, 2018, ISSN: 0921-8009. @article{jarvis_energy_2018, title = {Energy Returns and The Long-run Growth of Global Industrial Society}, author = {Andrew Jarvis}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916308138}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.11.005}, issn = {0921-8009}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-04-01}, urldate = {2017-12-31}, journal = {Ecological Economics}, volume = {146}, pages = {722--729}, abstract = {The extreme interconnectedness of energy and economic systems will tend to confound any attempt to estimate the energy return on investment at anything other than the global scale. Here, I apply a very simple model of global energy use to specify the dynamic characteristics of global-scale Energy Returns On Investment (EROIG). This suggests that the observed long-run relative growth rate of textasciitilde 2.5% yr− 1 in global primary energy use is associated with an equilibrium return from infrastructure investments of 2:1, with returns accruing with a time constant of 40 years. The analysis also attempts to show how growth leads to reductions in the supply efficiency of energy, and how this decline is offset by increases in the efficiency with which industrial society can extract useful work from primary energy flows. This observed preservation of the overall energy efficiency of the global energy system implicates variations in the decay/decommissioning rate of infrastructure in observed ‘long-wave’ like variations in the relative growth rate of global primary energy use, and hence EROIG.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The extreme interconnectedness of energy and economic systems will tend to confound any attempt to estimate the energy return on investment at anything other than the global scale. Here, I apply a very simple model of global energy use to specify the dynamic characteristics of global-scale Energy Returns On Investment (EROIG). This suggests that the observed long-run relative growth rate of textasciitilde 2.5% yr− 1 in global primary energy use is associated with an equilibrium return from infrastructure investments of 2:1, with returns accruing with a time constant of 40 years. The analysis also attempts to show how growth leads to reductions in the supply efficiency of energy, and how this decline is offset by increases in the efficiency with which industrial society can extract useful work from primary energy flows. This observed preservation of the overall energy efficiency of the global energy system implicates variations in the decay/decommissioning rate of infrastructure in observed ‘long-wave’ like variations in the relative growth rate of global primary energy use, and hence EROIG. |
Tàbara, David J; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Hölscher, Katharina; Pedde, Simona; Kok, Kasper; Lamperti, Francesco; Christensen, Jens H; Jäger, Jill; Berry, Pam Positive tipping points in a rapidly warming world Article de journal Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 31 , p. 120–129, 2018, ISSN: 1877-3435. @article{david_tabara_positive_2018, title = {Positive tipping points in a rapidly warming world}, author = {J David Tàbara and Niki Frantzeskaki and Katharina Hölscher and Simona Pedde and Kasper Kok and Francesco Lamperti and Jens H Christensen and Jill Jäger and Pam Berry}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343517300854}, doi = {10.1016/j.cosust.2018.01.012}, issn = {1877-3435}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-04-01}, urldate = {2018-03-12}, journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability}, volume = {31}, pages = {120--129}, series = {Sustainability governance and transformation 2018}, abstract = {The challenge of meeting the UNFCCC CoP21 goal of keeping global warming ‘well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts towards 1.5 °C’ (‘the 2–1.5 °C target’) calls for research efforts to better understand the opportunities and constraints for fundamental transformations in global systems dynamics which currently drive the unsustainable and inequitable use of the Earth's resources. To this end, this research reviews and introduces the notion of positive tipping points as emergent properties of systems–including both human capacities and structural conditions — which would allow the fast deployment of evolutionary-like transformative solutions to successfully tackle the present socio-climate quandary. Our research provides a simple procedural synthesis to help identify and coordinate the required agents’ capacities to implement transformative solutions aligned with such climate goal in different contexts. Our research shows how to identify the required capacities, conditions and potential policy interventions which could eventually lead to the emergence of positive tipping points in various social–ecological systems to address the 2–1.5 °C policy target. Our insights are based on the participatory downscaling of global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to Europe, the formulation of pathways of solutions within these scenarios and the results from an agent-based economic modelling.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The challenge of meeting the UNFCCC CoP21 goal of keeping global warming ‘well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts towards 1.5 °C’ (‘the 2–1.5 °C target’) calls for research efforts to better understand the opportunities and constraints for fundamental transformations in global systems dynamics which currently drive the unsustainable and inequitable use of the Earth's resources. To this end, this research reviews and introduces the notion of positive tipping points as emergent properties of systems–including both human capacities and structural conditions — which would allow the fast deployment of evolutionary-like transformative solutions to successfully tackle the present socio-climate quandary. Our research provides a simple procedural synthesis to help identify and coordinate the required agents’ capacities to implement transformative solutions aligned with such climate goal in different contexts. Our research shows how to identify the required capacities, conditions and potential policy interventions which could eventually lead to the emergence of positive tipping points in various social–ecological systems to address the 2–1.5 °C policy target. Our insights are based on the participatory downscaling of global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to Europe, the formulation of pathways of solutions within these scenarios and the results from an agent-based economic modelling. |
Tyszczuk, Renata; Smith, Joe Culture and climate change scenarios: the role and potential of the arts and humanities in responding to the ‘1.5 degrees target’ Article de journal Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 31 , p. 56–64, 2018, ISSN: 1877-3435. @article{tyszczuk_culture_2018, title = {Culture and climate change scenarios: the role and potential of the arts and humanities in responding to the ‘1.5 degrees target’}, author = {Renata Tyszczuk and Joe Smith}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343517301057}, doi = {10.1016/j.cosust.2017.12.007}, issn = {1877-3435}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-04-01}, urldate = {2018-01-16}, journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability}, volume = {31}, pages = {56--64}, series = {Sustainability governance and transformation 2018}, abstract = {This paper critically assesses the role and potential of the arts and humanities in relation to the ‘1.5 degree target’ embedded within the Paris Agreement. Specifically, it considers the purpose of scenarios in inviting thinking about transformed futures. It includes a preliminary assessment of the Culture and Climate Change: Scenarios project, an example of arts and humanities engagement with a ‘1.5°C future’. The paper argues that integrating more culturally rooted contributions into the creation and deliberation of climate change scenarios would enrich processes of future-thinking beyond climate model outputs. It would also test and extend some established practices of climate research and policy in anticipating and making futures. The paper suggests that the key characteristics of scenarios as a cultural form are that they provide space for collective, improvisational and reflexive modes of acting on and thinking about uncertain futures.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } This paper critically assesses the role and potential of the arts and humanities in relation to the ‘1.5 degree target’ embedded within the Paris Agreement. Specifically, it considers the purpose of scenarios in inviting thinking about transformed futures. It includes a preliminary assessment of the Culture and Climate Change: Scenarios project, an example of arts and humanities engagement with a ‘1.5°C future’. The paper argues that integrating more culturally rooted contributions into the creation and deliberation of climate change scenarios would enrich processes of future-thinking beyond climate model outputs. It would also test and extend some established practices of climate research and policy in anticipating and making futures. The paper suggests that the key characteristics of scenarios as a cultural form are that they provide space for collective, improvisational and reflexive modes of acting on and thinking about uncertain futures. |
Nieto, Jaime; Carpintero, Óscar; Miguel, Luis J Less than 2 °C? An Economic-Environmental Evaluation of the Paris Agreement Article de journal Ecological Economics, 146 , p. 69–84, 2018, ISSN: 0921-8009, (00000). @article{nieto_less_2018, title = {Less than 2 °C? An Economic-Environmental Evaluation of the Paris Agreement}, author = {Jaime Nieto and Óscar Carpintero and Luis J Miguel}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916314513}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.10.007}, issn = {0921-8009}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-04-01}, urldate = {2017-10-21}, journal = {Ecological Economics}, volume = {146}, pages = {69--84}, abstract = {The literature dedicated to the analysis of the different climate agreements has usually focused on the effectiveness of the aims for emissions in the light of the advance in climate change. This article quantifies the variation in emissions that the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) will entail and their financial allocation and policies country-by-country and regionally. The objective is evaluating the Paris Agreement feasibility regarding the INDCs and its economic and environmental constraints. The criteria through which the 161 INDCs are analysed are as follows: i/ socio-economic impact of the transition; ii/ focus on energy management; iii/ substitution of non-renewable sources; iv/ the role of technology; v/ equality of the transition; vi/ compliance with emission reductions. The results obtained show that the Paris Agreement excessively relies on external financial support (41.4%). Moreover, its unilateralist approach, the socio-economic and biophysical constraints could be the underlying cause of the ineffectiveness of the 2 °C objective. This way, each country would emit an average of 37.8% more than in the years 2005–2015. When this is weighted, the figure would be a 19.3% increase, due mainly to the increases in China and India. These figures would lead the temperatures up to 3°–4 °C.}, note = {00000}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The literature dedicated to the analysis of the different climate agreements has usually focused on the effectiveness of the aims for emissions in the light of the advance in climate change. This article quantifies the variation in emissions that the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) will entail and their financial allocation and policies country-by-country and regionally. The objective is evaluating the Paris Agreement feasibility regarding the INDCs and its economic and environmental constraints. The criteria through which the 161 INDCs are analysed are as follows: i/ socio-economic impact of the transition; ii/ focus on energy management; iii/ substitution of non-renewable sources; iv/ the role of technology; v/ equality of the transition; vi/ compliance with emission reductions. The results obtained show that the Paris Agreement excessively relies on external financial support (41.4%). Moreover, its unilateralist approach, the socio-economic and biophysical constraints could be the underlying cause of the ineffectiveness of the 2 °C objective. This way, each country would emit an average of 37.8% more than in the years 2005–2015. When this is weighted, the figure would be a 19.3% increase, due mainly to the increases in China and India. These figures would lead the temperatures up to 3°–4 °C. |
collapsologie.fr 2019
